Bewildebeest wrote:I disagree with this on the grounds that bookie's odds are not statistical - i.e. mathematical - probabilities. The statistical odds in this case should add up to one - i.e. the fact that there will be a result, whether it's yes, no or a draw, is a certainty therefore the total of all the probabilities will add up to 1. If however you total the bookies odds (for any event) the total is always more than one - the difference is how the bookie makes his living.
Bewildebeest, I didn't mention anything about statistics or mathematics in my argument to look at what the bookies are doing, the last part of your statement is the reason
BTW the odds continue to shorten on a Remain vote.
But.......I still don't like using bookies odds as a guide because the betting influences the odds and the odds then influence the betting ..............ad infinitum. So how valid are they then ?
More valid than the polls that have been reported to death in the last 100 years of this campaign. Roll on the weekend when we can look forward to the football, tennis and bad weather
By post. Got to be 'IN'. Please, please.
My view is no one over 50 should be allowed to vote on this as it's all about the future.
An elderly couple did the right thing in that they allowed their 16 year old grandsons to decide how they should vote.
All the politicians I had the opportunity to meet personally through work that I respected for their ability to reason and process information of both parties (Ken Clarke, Alaistair Darling, Prescott -yes, really-, Brown) all are for Remain. The only one for Leave I met - Grayling - was an abject t055er.
Mick
'Creativity is the product of time wasted' Albert Einstein
1972 RHD 2.4E (ex Bob Watson racer - now in original Tangerine)
1966 LHD swb (Doctors car - now with Mrs. Ferrari in Madrid)
1966 TR4A (now sold and replaced by 1990 944 turbo)
1966 S2a Landrover
It is all a lot of nonsense. Very, very few of the electorate are able to make an informed decision, especially as our sources of information are so inaccurate and biased, even the idea that the issue is as simple as a binary 'yes/no' decision is laughable. There are so many unknowable future variables.
bjmullan wrote:More valid than the polls that have been reported to death in the last 100 years of this campaign. Roll on the weekend when we can look forward to the football, tennis and bad weather
I'm not a bookie but I was a statistician, and to say odds are not statistical is true BUT.. They're based on a lot of statistical work and research, and these are not people to like to lose money, so they're not a bad guide (directionally)
That said everyone gets caught out from time to time
It is all a lot of nonsense. Very, very few of the electorate are able to make an informed decision, especially as our sources of information are so inaccurate and biased, even the idea that the issue is as simple as a binary 'yes/no' decision is laughable. There are so many unknowable future variables.
