Do you find this scary?

[jeremyg]

I read a news article today that I find pretty perplexing for those of us who love driving. It's about the new scheme to test autonomous cars between London and Oxford within a couple of years.

What do you think about the way things are heading? These paragraphs are part of the article.


"At a recent conference on connected cars Direct Line, Britain’s biggest motor insurer, warned that driving by humans might “increasingly become a luxury pursuit”. Insurance premiums will be far higher for those who drive themselves, and correspondingly lower for cars with growing levels of automation.
“Absolutely, we will push people in that direction,” said Gus Park, the insurer’s managing director for motor and business development, although he cautioned: “We’re going to be in a pretty complicated mixed environment for some time.” He compared the period ahead to when horse-drawn vehicles were withdrawn from main roads."

"Paul Newman, the founder of Oxbotica, which will run the Oxford-London trials and developed the autonomous technology used by the Greenwich pod, said the question would be: at what point does the government have a duty of care to intervene in the face of statistics that are likely to show human drivers cause thousands of deaths a year? Newman pointed out that governments have answered this question before by enforcing the wearing of seatbelts.
Incentives and controls are perhaps more likely than an outright ban – rather like smoking, driving may become increasingly costly and permitted in ever fewer places. Thorny questions of prohibition may be dodged in favour of licensing fast lanes for connected self-driving cars, for example; or creating urban zones where shared autonomous vehicles of some description become the only mode of transport."

"The consensus among those thinking about the driverless future is that social attitudes and politics will keep humans in the driving seat for a decade or two longer than technology requires. But eventually, beyond enthusiasts on private roads, tending a beloved antique, is the car driver heading the way of the dodo?"



Basically I suspect that "decade or two longer" will very quickly shrink as the force of big money sees huge huge profit in producing autonomous vehicles, and the safety and insurance lobbies jump on this politically forcing the timescale even tighter.

So how will we preserve the right to enjoy and celebrate the automotive past, while "tending our beloved antique"?

What do you all think?

[Dyno Soar]

I think its inevitable that automation will soon mean our transport is fully automated. Trains, Buses, haulage, and cars too.

I reminds me of a couple of scenes from I am robot with Will Smith; when in his car, he switches to manual and the computer asks him if he is sure? He responds something like he likes to drive. Also the scene where he breaks out an MV Augusta F4 and his passenger exclaims 'does this thing have a combustion engine?!!!!'

The future is automation.

I doubt they'll be able to automate motorcycles. So I'll keep riding.

[inaglasshouse]

For the daily driver - yes, that's the way it's heading. Electric cars with a lot of computing power. Millenials probably aren't even interested in driving - for them a car will be evaluated in the same way as a mobile phone.

For hobby cars, no.

50-year-old Porsches kept in dehumidified garages and brought out on sunny days are already a luxury and a minority pursuit. The govt can't even be bothered to collect road tax from us, niche insurers correctly see us as very low risk (how many other 100K cars can you insure for 300 GBP per year?) and we're generally not clogging up busy roads at busy times.

I reckon it's going to be a golden age.
Nobody on the B roads at all, less likely that an automated car will pull out in front of you without looking.

[Bootsy]

"at what point does the government have a duty of care to intervene in the face of statistics that are likely to show human drivers cause thousands of deaths a year? "

Following this through to its logical conclusion at which point do we have a duty of care to acknowledge that human stupidity causes the majority of local and worldwide problems and that we need to commence labotomies on the stupid

[Sam]

Like inaglasshouse, I' looking forward to it.

Cars will become what horses are, mainly for pleasure for people like us to enjoy rather than for transport for the masses.

We'll all breathe cleaner air, the roads will run more smoothly and there will be fewer road deaths.

Bring it on.

[Bruce M]

I can see an argument for self-drive to have an age limit. Plenty of scary old drivers on the road who can barely walk from their front door to their driveway. However, what if that is 70 or 65 or even 60. Hopefully some common sense will be applied.

[MikeB]

The insurance issue will be interesting and a conundrum for the Goverment, what about those who can't afford to buy/rent one of these auto-cars, they can't put the insurances up and be seen to disadvantage the low paid.

As for the B roads being quite, have you seen what satnavs do, artics driving up farm lanes etc !

[Dyno Soar]

Cycle into London every other day and would welcome more electric vehicles and perhaps autonomous cars and trucks.

Clean air... its to be sniffed at.

[Nick Moss]

It's all about safety. Humans are the root cause of almost every accident, remove them and the computer can then predict with almost 100% accuracy what another car, being driven by the same software, will do in an any given situation. The roads will be safer, journeys quicker and, even with current fuel technologies, cars will be much more economical and emit much less.

[inaglasshouse]

The insurance issue will be interesting and a conundrum for the Goverment, what about those who can't afford to buy/rent one of these auto-cars, they can't put the insurances up and be seen to disadvantage the low paid.

I think the govt will press ahead regardless.
For example the London T-charge, which is being implemented faster than originally planned and looks likely to begin in October this year. Anything not Euro 4 compliant (so approx 2003 cars and earlier, which I imagine includes a fair few owned by the less affluent) pays double the current congestion charge.

But historic tax class vehicles are exempt. I really don't think bashing classic cars is a priority.
I've no complaints - policy seems sensible to me.
Have you been to Beijing? Smog is not nice.

[210bhp]

I can see an argument for self-drive to have an age limit. Plenty of scary old drivers on the road who can barely walk from their front door to their driveway. However, what if that is 70 or 65 or even 60. Hopefully some common sense will be applied.

This World is for everyone to share and enjoy.

Tolerance of our fellow human is a declining virtue.



Regards
Mike

[Nick Moss]

I can see an argument for self-drive to have an age limit. Plenty of scary old drivers on the road who can barely walk from their front door to their driveway. However, what if that is 70 or 65 or even 60. Hopefully some common sense will be applied.

Upper or lower limit? Older drivers are safer than very young drivers.

[911hillclimber]

I'll be dead before this takes the comprehensive grip you all talk about, but science fiction always comes true.
Those '50's Sci-Fi films are getting more real.

Dealing with the scrappage of all the fossil-fueled vehicles that are nor auto-equipped will be a major economic issue and will take votes from those in Westminster, and so many electric vehicles still have to be fuelled so taxes will be levied on these new capsules asap.

The world will shrink as space and the environment become more precious.
Strangers sharing these capsules will be a no-no, just think of the risks involved, rape, muggings etc! That won't happen or be forced upon people rich enough to travel!

Humanity is responsible for everything evil and most good things on this planet so sh!t will always happen.
The Insurance companies will peddle this along like mad, loads of money to be made.

Minimise the risks that human frailty brings and bump the premiums as you like, who will stop them?

Love the comment that an auto motorcycle will never happen!
Will they do convertible capsules I wonder?

[Darren C]

Soon, there will no longer be "natural selection" for the human race, we'll end up a species of mechanically fed & medicated morons on an over populated planet with diminished resources.

[neilbardsley]

Sounds like Asimov was correct. Thank goodness I will be too old to care before it happens

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