DDK Market Forces

[Ashley James]

From memory, which is poor, I believe attendance, prices, cars entered and cars sold were all down by about 25% at Pebble Beach auctions this year. They’d fallen by 10% a year for several years before that and it is argued that everything else follows on from that trend. These are assumed to be the most desirable/rare examples on the planet.

For a variety of reasons of which ageing enthusiasts might be the biggest, interest in classic cars is on the wane. Not sure about supercars though, they’re rather silly, so it might be a passing fad.

[slipslide]

I have been looking to sell a 356 project and buy something more modern for the last few month and there are a few things i have noticed compared to when i bought the 912/356.
The 356. My opinion is the interest is still there amongst the 40 plus age group. I put the car up on DDK and put the "word out" and have been pleasantly surprised by the response, So much so that i ended up just saying to people that i was so tied up around Christmas i will be back to them end of Jan. So i havent sold it and may not but the interest is there.
I think the early aircooled 911/912 and 356 are in demand from the VW aircooled guys that have money and want one, not sure about the high end section of the market but definately a healthy interest in the cars.
The newer market seems to be suffering. I started looking for something easier to live with, that my wife can enjoy as well. So 997/996 maybe 964. My interest started early last year and from what i can tell prices are only going one way, down. I went and looked and a couple in Novemeber that had alredy dropped 10% in the months before i looked at them, i didnt buy them due to one thing or another and then I was contacted by both owners offering to drop the price. One by 25%. These are not top end cars. 997 carrera 4s 2007-2008 70-80000 miles, around 25k asking price. I think there is further to drop as well.

[richkaz]

Daft modern cars definitely seem on the rapid slide. A friend bought a 20k mile 2017 McLaren 540 this week for £70k, dealers had apparently been bidding the previous owner £65k. They were retailing at £85-90k a few months ago.

Well Sam , there might be a different reason regarding current McLaren pricing if this is anything to go by.
Although much is to do with their Manchester distributor, enough other recent ownership horror stories abound
that might account for falling prices.
Father and son decide to spend £400k on a couple of McLaren's and this allegedly is how they were treated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7qpUqwLS9o

[Sam]

I’m sure reliability and running costs are a factor in values. Like they are with all low volume hand built cars.

I can’t be arsed to watch the whole vid, but I’d guess the cars had numerous faults and the dealer’s service was rubbish. Plus ca change.

[hot66]

Youngest daughter who is 14 years old this summer just asked me why don’t we see many 80’s cars on the road anymore and isi it possible to have an 80’s Porsche as a daily ? ... very proud of her

... out of interest, the 80’s Porsche thing seems to have come from the netflix series ‘Titan’ where Robin drives a loverly IB all the time

Eldest daughter just passed her driving test and although really girly, she’s into cars but more so enjoys driving. it’s there only way really of getting around to see friends etc

Youngest seems to have set herself to get an old Porsche as a target .... so not all youth is lost ( she also wants a Jeep Wrangler though )

[neilbardsley]

Timo made a good point like houses these cars are too expensive for 20 somethings to get involved in.

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[Gustosomerset]

As someone suggested to me the other day, it may be that toys are important to understand this trend.

In the 50's and 60's kids (boys mainly) played with Meccano. So they grew up with an interest in engineering and now like tinkering with old cars. In the 70's they had Lego - so they developed an interest in design and now like tinkering with old cars.

In the 80's and 90's they played with video games. These require no understanding of mechanics or design - but instead foster an expectation of interactions with machines that 'just work'. My children (born in the mid nineties) would no more look under the bonnet of their cars than they would disassemble a Playstation.

Of course there will be exceptions - but on the whole, I think that, sadly, most of the cars we value are very rapidly going to become worthless.

[Winston Teague]

You should have bought them a tired secondhand motorbike......
W

[Sam]

Nostalgia is a driving force behind old car values. Those that we lusted after as kids become affordable in our 40s/50s and prices go up, then settle down as demand gets satisfied.

Nostalgia will never go away.

I’m not convinced combustion engine cars will be legislated against, it’d be unpopular and they’ll naturally disappear without intervention as electric gets cheaper and petrol goes up. Enthusiasts will suffer increased costs to indulge their hobby, just like steam enthusiasts and horsey people do now. These don’t need to be engineering enthusiasts, any more than all horse riders are vets, they’re just as likely to be people who enjoy the physical sensations of accelerating and changing gear in petrol cars.

[sladey]

Agree with that

[Gustosomerset]

Nostalgia will never go away, but the things people are nostalgic about will always change. Whilst cars have resonated for many generations, I think they're - quite suddenly - not going to any more. The transition to a digital society has been fast and dramatic - so the change in the next generation's objects of nostalgia (and their consequent value) will be equally so. Retro gaming consoles anyone?

I think the comparison with 'horsey people' is also apposite. People who maintain an interest - against all logic - in what used to be the principal means of transport but is now a specialist hobby for a tiny minority of wealthy people.

I wish I was wrong about this - but I do think that talk of 'a temporary correction in the market' ignores a fundamental shift in attitudes and interests.

[DustyM]

And yet all the major car shows get larger and larger attendance each year. (Goodwood for example is now a sell out on all three days that wasn’t the case 5 years ago) There are also more and more shows competing for
Summer weekends each year. There are more cars and coffee events on around the country than even a few years ago.

Even on the magazine shelves there seem to be more and more car magazines specialising ever more and this in a digital age when they should be dying out!

Ours will always be a niche hobby when the size of the general population is taken into account but as niches go its a huge one.


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[Darren65]

I do hope the market crashes big style..........even though the classic car market, suppliers, resources and number of meets has grown tenfold (and more!) over the past several years it's still just far too busy having to fight the huge crowds every time you go Bicester, Caffine & Machine, Luftkühlung, Classics at the Castle etc etc etc.......even PCGB now like classics! .....

....much better if it goes back to how it was many years ago when only a few cared about old cars!.......I'm dreading the tens of thousands that'll be at Classic Le Mans this year, I'll be far happier when no-ones much interested!

[Sam]

Nostalgia will never go away, but the things people are nostalgic about will always change. Whilst cars have resonated for many generations, I think they're - quite suddenly - not going to any more. The transition to a digital society has been fast and dramatic - so the change in the next generation's objects of nostalgia (and their consequent value) will be equally so. Retro gaming consoles anyone?

Maybe. But we need physical enjoyment in life and as service jobs and a sedentary working life have become dominant there’s been a rise in all manner of hobbies that give us the buzz we need from moving our bodies. From football violence to club cycling to going down the gym. Driving a rusty old car is fun, it’ll always be fun.

I loved computer games as a kid, I’d happily spend 10 hours a day on Streetfighter 2, but find no joy in them now. I’d much rather go for a run, hit a ball with something, chop some firewood, or even go for a strop in a rusty old car.

[Gustosomerset]

Sam, Darren, Dusty M - you may all be right (I very much hope you are), and my pessimism may be unfounded. It's certainly true that, as AI takes over many jobs, large numbers of people will have more leisure time to fill. Let's hope more choose to fill it by tinkering with rusty old cars that with football violence...